GCI by CiteAlpha · Guidance Credibility Index for Indian listed companies
Did management deliver on what they promised? We check.
CiteAlpha's Guidance Credibility Index (GCI) compares what Indian listed management guided to what they later reported. Every score opens to the exchange filing, IR deck, or transcript behind it.
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Built for: Buy-side · Sell-side research · Quant / data · IR & compliance
Worked example: Infosys revenue growth guidance vs actuals
Each April, management guided full-year revenue growth in constant currency. Each year links two filed Infosys results releases (SEC Form 6-K): the one that set the guidance and the one that reported the actual.
- FY22 — guided 12–14%, actual 19.7% — exceeded (reported 2022-04-13). Guidance given 2021-04-14: “Revenue growth guidance of 12%-14% in constant currency” · Actual reported 2022-04-13: “Revenues in CC terms grew by 19.7% YoY”
- FY23 — guided 13–15%, actual 15.4% — exceeded (reported 2023-04-13). Guidance given 2022-04-13: “Revenue growth of 13%-15% in constant currency” · Actual reported 2023-04-13: “industry-leading growth of 15.4% in constant currency”
- FY24 — guided 4–7%, actual 1.4% — missed (reported 2024-04-18). Guidance given 2023-04-13: “Revenue growth of 4%-7% in constant currency” · Actual reported 2024-04-18: “Revenues in CC terms grew by 1.4% YoY”
Infosys changed its guidance during each of these years: FY22 was raised three times to 19.5%–20.0%, FY23 to 16.0%–16.5%, and FY24 was cut to 1.5%–2.0%. We score against the original April guidance and show every revision, with its own filing, next to it. Against the final range, FY23 was a miss.
Why doesn't a big beat score 100? GCI measures promise-keeping discipline, not forecast accuracy. Guidance of 12–14% against an actual of 19.7% scores about 62. A wide beat is scored on how reliable the promise was. A beat never scores below 60. A miss the same distance below the range scores 0. Full methodology · Open the full Infosys evidence trail.
What is a Guidance Credibility Index?
GCI is a 0–100 score of promise-keeping against a company's own quantified guidance — revenue bands, margins, volumes, capex. It tracks that promise, not forecast accuracy, sentiment, or share price. Each guided number gets one outcome once the period closes: met, exceeded, missed, dropped, or pending.
How we build a score
- Sources — NSE and BSE filings, company IR decks and guidance tables, earnings-call transcripts.
- What counts as guidance — a number or range for a named metric and period, from a filing, results release or call transcript. Commentary without a number is left out. If guidance is raised or cut during the year, we score against the original number and show every revision next to it.
- Verification — each guidance quote and each reported actual is kept with its document link and date. The row counts only when a fetch of both documents contains those quotes.
- Scoring — GCI scores promise-keeping, not forecast accuracy. Each closed result earns 0–100 points for where it landed against its own guided range; misses lose points faster than beats. A wide range reaches 100 more easily than a tight one. Scores are not adjusted by sector. Open periods don't count until results are filed.
- Independence — payment never influences a score or when it changes. Covered companies cannot buy, edit or delay their score.
Coverage today
- Sensex companies plus early Nifty 50 names are scored when both quotes are found on the cited filings, once they have at least one closed result. Only these carry a GCI.
- A small set of companies have sample data for walkthroughs — not scored, not for citation.
- Other NSE/BSE listings can be browsed but are not yet scored.
- Point-in-time API for design partners: every data point carries the date it became known and whether it can be cited.
Explore the product
Each tool is labeled by what it does and who can use it today.
- GCI Screener (Screen · Live · free preview) — screen covered companies by GCI score and change, with quality badges on every row.
- Analyst Workbench (Review & export · Live · pilot and paid seats) — check extracted guidance against its source, then export cited reports and point-in-time data.
- Filing Search (Search one company · Live · registered users) — search one company's filings and transcripts; answers only when a source can be cited.
- Disclosure Explorer (Compare companies · Beta) — compare disclosures across companies with cite-only answers.
- Public Snapshot (Share · Live · public, no login) — public GCI snapshot; no recommendation labels.